In this paper, I focus on the current farm environment in the Riverina, to outline some of the threats to and opportunities for agriculture in this region, and to describe a framework which must be put in place to support leading agriculturists. Subsequent papers enlarge on the theme of "taking control", and provide examples of successful ventures.

The Riverina Environment

Geographically, the Riverina region is bounded in the east by the Great Dividing Range, north by a line drawn from about Yass to Hillston and then directly west to the South Australian border, and south by the Murray River. Statistically, it comprises the Murrumbidgee and Murray statistical districts.

In the east, the Riverina is characterised by high rainfall grazing lands, which slope westward to the main cropping belt which extends from Wagga to beyond Griffith. Several major irrigation areas and irrigation districts occur around Leeton-Griffith, Deniliquin-Finley, and Wentworth-Mildura. Low-rainfall grazing lands dominate the western part of the region.

Table 1. Gross Value of Agricultural Production - Riverina

Product	$M	% NSW	#1	#2
1987/88 (8620 establishments)
Crops	420	28	Wheat	Rice
Horticulture*	241	39	Citrus	Grapes
Livestock	821	22	Wool	Cattle
Total	1482
1991/92 (7990 establishments)
Crops	505	28	Rice	Wheat
Horticulture*	323	39	Citrus	Vegies
Livestock	673	21	Wool	Cattle
Total	1500

(*includes other crops)
Source: ABS

The Riverina produces nearly one-fourth of the agricultural production of New South Wales. Over four years since 1987, the value of this product has consistently averaged $1.5b per year (Table 1). The total value of livestock production in the Riverina and NSW has declined during the same period (Table 1) but this shortfall has been more than made up by increased crop and horticultural production (Table 2). The agricultural mix in the Riverina is very resilient, particularly the cropping and irrigated agriculture sectors. Producers combat the poor current terms of trade through an increase in productivity (the ratio of outputs to inputs - Table 3), and by diversification into higher value agricultural enterprises.

Table 2. Gross Value of Selected Commodities - Riverina ($M)

Commodity	1987/88	1991/92		Gain/Loss (%)
Wheat	188	144	−	23
Rice	113	176	+	55
Oilseeds	9	23	+	155
Citrus	69	84	+	22
Vegies	56	73	+	30
Grapes	57	68	+	19
Wool	510	312	−	39
Cattle	128	156	+	22
Pigs	73	93	+	27

Source: ABS

Table 3. Average Annual Productivity Increases 1978-1989

Enterprises	%
All broadacre agriculture	2.2
Crops (wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds)	5.5
Mixed crops and livestock	2.4
Sheep	0.2
Beef	0.1
Sheep-beef	2.4

Source: ABARE

In terms of agricultural enterprises, there is an ongoing steady decline in the number of rural establishments, which fell from 8620 establishments in 1987/88 to 7990 in 1991/92.

The Grazing Zone

The analysis of agriculture in the Riverina on a zone by zone basis begins with the high rainfall grazing zone which lies to the east of Albury, Wagga and Cootamundra. For this analysis figures have been chosen from a recent grazing industries case study conducted just outside the Riverina, in the Monaro region, to indicate some of the trends and problems associated with sheep and cattle production from the grazing zone. This analysis provides a useful comparison of the performance of rural producers in terms of a number of indicators (Table 4). The top 20% of graziers invested more in seed and fertiliser than the average and the bottom 20%, their stocking rates (dry sheep equivalents per hectare) were consistently higher, and they spent more dollars to achieve a higher gross income and a higher profit. Indeed, it is remarkable how much variation occurs in productivity, measured in terms of dollars per hectare.

Table 4. Grazing Industries Case Study (Monaro) - Indicators (1991)

Component	Top 20%	Average	Bottom 20%
Seed and fertiliser investment ($ per ha)	6.81	5.59	3.93
Stocking rate (DSE per ha)	6.35	5.04	3.82
Income ($ per productive ha)	135.36	98.44	60.38
Expenses ($ per productive ha)	87.80	76.68	64.80
Net profit ($ per productive ha)	47.56	21.76	(4.42)

Source: Michael Boyce and Co., Chartered Accountants, Cooma

One of the disturbing features which occurred in this analysis was the reduction of investment in pasture, the basic agriculture resource for the zone. From a peak of nearly $10 invested each year in fertiliser and seed per productive hectare in 1988, there followed a decline to less than a quarter of that expenditure in 1992 (Table 5). While this decline is understandable, it underlines the expenditure which will, in the future, be necessary in order to rebuild this resource.

Table 5. Trends in Pasture Investment (Monaro)

	Pasture improvement ($ invested per productive ha)
	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992
Fertiliser spread	9.08	5.58	6.15	2.14	1.80
Seed sown	0.70	0.86	0.66	0.50	0.50

Source: Michael Boyce and Co., Chartered Accountants, Cooma

Because of the current grim financial picture, the decline in pasture resources, and the occurrence in the eastern Riverina of soil acidity problems (Figure 1), the outlook for agricultural production from grazing lands is not bright in the next decade. Many graziers must now contemplate some painful decisions. However, for those with a high equity in their property and low debt, there may be opportunities other than just waiting for high wool prices. For example, much of this region is in demand for timber production. Also it is a beautiful part of the world and, with a four lane highway linking Sydney and Melbourne close by, there are opportunities for tourism development, providing log cabins and serenity for jaded city dwellers.

Figure 1. Soil Acidity in the Eastern Riverina

Cropping Zone

In contrast to the high rainfall zone, farms in the cropping zone are more diverse, and more scope is available for good managers to alter their production mix. There is an abundance of new technology for those in a position to take it up. For example, crop rotations in the Riverina have become more diverse through the introduction of new crops such as canola and grain legumes. Non-cereal crops, and the practice of winter cleaning of pastures, have reduced the amount of root rot diseases such as take-all in cereal crops and, as a consequence, Riverina wheat and barley crops are now reaching yields unheard of several years ago. The ley pasture-crop production system of the Riverina is well buffered. Persistent new strains of subterranean clover are available to maximise livestock production from ley pastures, and to provide a source of nitrogen to sustain the farming system. A much underrated plant in the Riverina is lucerne, the area of which could be usefully expanded approximately fourfold. Lucerne/subterranean clover leys have much to commend them - the lucerne component uses every last drop of water each year, which is not only efficient but also sustainable, by minimising the risk of rising water tables and salinisation.

Through research by State and Commonwealth organisations, using in part funds provided from research organisations such as the Grains Research and Development Corporation, the supply of new technology is likely to continue. Table 6 shows some selected results of a cost benefit analysis conducted by GRDC on some of its research projects - all were profitable, some spectacularly so.

Table 6. Benefits from Grains Research - GRDC Projects

R & D Project	Potential Benefits $M	Benefit/Cost Ratio
Lupin improvement	369	10:1
High yielding agronomy packages	31	29:1
Noodle quality of wheat	14	7:1
Crop production on acid soils	122	297:1
All projects (21)	1065	19:1

Source: GRDC

A threat to production along the eastern margin of the cropping belt - soil acidity - is now much better understood. Liming is essential but costly, and some breathing space comes from crops which tolerate aluminium toxicity.

Another optimistic note comes from evidence that rural producers in the cropping zone are now adopting new technology at a more rapid rate than previously. Crop yield trends during the last few years are showing upward mobility - data provided by Hamblin and Kyneur (1993) show that several shires in southern NSW (e.g. Wagga, Junee, Temora, Cowra) are amongst the highest in Australia in terms of the trend in wheat yields.

Better teamwork is developing between private and public extension agents, new information packing techniques such as canola check are having an impact, and there has been a successful shift in the philosophy of extension toward "farmer first" (Dunn, 1993).

Hence, the pessimism which is evident in some quarters in this zone can be balanced by a considerable degree of optimism, for those who are both good farmers and good business people.

Irrigated Agriculture

While there is a perception in cities that irrigated agriculture is causing a lot of problems, the reality is different from that image. Indeed, in some commodities, irrigation is providing spectacular benefits. In an average year, with average prices, the value of the irrigated cotton crop in Australia is some $800m which ultimately provides benefits of over $4b. Cotton is only a relatively small crop in the Riverina, with rice being the mainstay crop. In relatively few years, the yield of an average rice crop has gone from between 5 and 7 tonnes per hectare in 1980-88, to between 8 and 9 tonnes per hectare in 1989-92.

The scene is set for a considerable increase in the area of irrigated grape production, providing that the export growth of wine (Table 7) is sustained, and if the domestic market is not damaged by increases in taxes on the wine industry. The success stories of individual growers like Sam Mancini (1993) are an inspiration to rural colleagues.

Table 7. Australian Wine Imports and Exports (Kilolitres)

	1985/86	1987/88	1989/90	1991/92
Imports	12359	8146	10453	8325
Exports	10829	39001	41708	77579
Net	−1530	30855	31255	69254

Source: Journal of Agriculture, WA

However, there are a number of threats to agriculture in irrigated regions. One of the most often mentioned is salinisation. If nothing is done about this in NSW, Blackmore and Lyle (1993) have estimated an escalation of economic losses during the next fifty years (Table 8). The recent joint appointment of a Professor of Irrigation by Charles Sturt University and the CSIRO Division of Water Resources is in response to the national importance of irrigation and the emergence of issues such as salinity.

Table 8. Salinisation in Irrigated Regions

	Area with shallow watertables ('000 ha)		Economic Losses $M per year		GVP without salinity
Year	1985	2040	1990	2040	$M 1990
Victoria	360	632	30	69	154
New South Wales	201	685	14	54	158

Source: Blackmore and Lyle, 1993

Another problem which has caught the attention of the media is the problem of pollution of inland waterways, possibly leading on to the occurrence of toxic algae in these waterways at certain times. Science is now catching up with the problem and it does appear that millions of livestock and thousands of hectares of crops are less important as sources of pollutants than those sources which are associated with a few hundred thousand people such as sewerage treatment works and urban storm water (Table 9). Furthermore, the occurrence of toxic blue-green algae may depend more on low river flow rates, leading to ponding and stratification, rather than on the presence of nutrients in waterways per se (G. Jones, personal communication).

Table 9. Pollution: Average Annual Nutrient Loads Entering Murray-Darling River System (tonnes per year)

Source	Total P	Total N
Point sources:
Sewerage treatment	500	2790
Irrigation drainage	170	980
Urban storm water	80	660
Fish farms	20	120
Feedlots	-	-
Diffuse sources:
Forests	220	4400
Pastures	360	1800
Crops	760	540

Source: Blackmore and Lyle, 1993

The irrigated areas in the Riverina also provide an example of another threat to the sustainable development of agriculture in the region - a fragmented bureaucracy. In the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area, a number of bodies are likely to be influential in the future. Included among these are the Murray-Darling Basin Commission, the Departments of Agriculture, Fisheries, Water Resources, CALM, the Environmental Protection Agency, CSIRO, universities such as Charles Sturt University, Rural Research Corporations, and industry associations. Fragmented bureaucracies may be dangerous bureaucracies, since one sector is often ignorant of the activities of another. It is important that in the future better teamwork is developed between the different sectors of those authorities which have an interest in, and control of, irrigated agriculture throughout the Riverina.

The Future - Taking Control

Whatever have been the problems of recent years, more will occur in the future. Some of the questions which may be asked by farmers and agriculturists in the future are listed in Table 10. Increasingly, there shall be rules and regulations to prevent farmers (along with other members of the community) causing pollution, or degrading agricultural resources. It is essential that farmers and graziers are not only aware of these issues but they have the technical strength to deal with them, on-farm and politically.

The National Farmers' Federation has outlined its vision of the future in its policy document "New Horizons". Components of that vision include:

• a shift from rural commodities to "value adding"

• integration between agriculture and food industries (production, processing, marketing)

• better training, education and managerial skills within agriculture

• improved methods of financing agriculture - e.g. a move from debt funding to equity finance.

Table 10. Problems: Now and in Ten Year's Time?

• Can I burn my stubble (12 tonnes/ha) within 5 km of Coolamon?

• Can I irrigate a leaky soil?

• Can I afford the cost of fertilisers to replace those nutrients exported from my farm (in grain, produce)?

• How can I get a permit to use atrazine?

• How can I treat my effluent to meet the standard?

• Must I pay the fine for failing to apply lime in my acid soil?

• How do you know my animals are stressed?

• Where can I get a reliable supply of diesel fuel?

• Won't anything kill these insects?

• What bloody footrot?

• Who'll buy my produce?

• Who'll buy my farm?

• Why must it be me who pays for "clean agriculture"?

• Why didn't my kids study agriculture?

• Why did my kids study agriculture?

The Riverina region is as well placed as any in Australia to adopt a more entrepreneurial, sustainable and business-like attitude toward the future of agriculture.

In addition, attention must be given to other areas if indeed we are to capitalise on the basic strengths of our agriculture, which is the most productive and cleanest in world agriculture. These areas include:

• the need to maintain agricultural R&D firepower - governments are increasingly avoiding their basic responsibilities in terms of maintaining the R&D institutions which have served agriculture so well in the past. It is ridiculous that, in 1993, only one plant pathologist is available at the Agricultural Research Institute in Wagga Wagga, when a decade ago there were three. Exciting projects, such as the canola improvement program at Wagga ARI, must be protected and expanded rather than being threatened through a lack of basic scientific manpower. Agriculture, particularly the cropping and irrigated sectors, is vulnerable to new diseases and pests and our basic stock of pathologists, entomologists, agronomists and breeders must be sustained.

• There is a need to explore sociological (people) issues in agriculture, and adopt innovative solutions to what are seen to be problems. For examples, recent studies by members of the CSU Centre for Rural Social Research have highlighted the need to advance women in agriculture to the role of central players rather than the rural support role they traditionally play, and there is a need to explore and promote coping strategies for rural people in crisis.

• There is a continuing need for industry reform, both on the farm and off the farm, covering areas such as tariffs, micro-economic reform and quality accreditation. Within two or three years, I confidently predict that the grains industry will have in place an assurance scheme which improves and enhances the quality of Australian grains from the farm to the eventual consumer, both domestic and export.

• There is a need to overcome the fragmentation referred to earlier (of industry, bureaucracies), and enhance teamwork amongst all players within the food production and food processing industries.

In summary, I see a need for individuals to take control. Farmers, graziers, agriculturists and policy makers can all help each other by seeking information on the issues and understanding the science behind each issue. Agricultural scientists should be used by all sectors of the industry to obtain objective viewpoints on problems and solutions. There is a need throughout the industry to prepare contingency plans to cope with threats and opportunities. There is a great need for teamwork between farmers and business people, and it is a reflection of this conference that this teamwork is clearly evident. On-farm and off-farm, the agricultural industries must continue to lobby politicians and bureaucrats, and even citizens, in order to retain a profitable and sustainable place for farmers and agriculturists in Australian society. For everyone involved in business, there is a need for vision and skills, such as effective negotiation skills, to achieve that vision.

I conclude with a quote from Mr Bruce Loder (1993), Australian Cotton Foundation, at a recent irrigation symposium held in the Riverina:

"If people in this country wish to maintain the values and lifestyles they have grown accustomed to, they must remember that the vast majority of our wealth comes from the land in agriculture and mining, and those assets have to be protected and nurtured and not put at risk by pie-in-the-sky dreamers".

This is certainly a piece of agricultural fundamentalism, but it is no more or less fundamental than many of the messages which are emanating from other sectors of Australian society. It is important that with skill, ethics and determination, we take control of our future.

References

1. Blackmore, D. and Lyle, C. (1993) - The impact of environmental concerns on irrigated agriculture. Proceedings of a Symposium, "The Future of Irrigation in the Murray-Darling Basin" (CSIRO: Griffith).

2. Dunn, A.M. (1993) - this conference.

3. Hamblin, A.P. and Keyneur, G. (1993) - Trends in wheat yields and soil fertility in Australia. Occasional Publication Series, Department of Primary Industries and Energy, Bureau of Resource Sciences (AGPS: Canberra).

4. Loder, B. (1993). Proceedings of Conference on "Future Directions of Irrigation in the Murray-Darling Basin", Griffith, NSW.

5. Mancini, S. (1993) - this conference