Table 2.1 & Table 3.2
Table 2.1 Financial Evaluation of Hypothetical High Speed Rail from Sydney to Canberra (current dollars million)
Financial costs
PV@11%
Year 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Construction
2,340
600
618
637
656
675
1.03
Rolling stock
199
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
151
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Track and plant costs
73
0
0
0
0
0
12
12
12
13
13
13
14
14
15
15
16
16
17
17
18
18
19
19
20
20
21
22
22
23
24
Fixed operating costs
145
0
0
0
0
0
23
24
25
25
26
27
28
29
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
41
42
43
44
46
47
Variable operating costs
285
0
0
0
0
0
35
37
39
42
44
47
50
53
56
59
63
67
71
75
80
84
90
95
101
107
113
120
128
135
144
15
Total costs
3,042
600
618
637
656
957
70
73
76
80
83
87
91
95
100
256
110
115
120
126
132
139
145
152
160
168
176
185
194
204
214
Passenger forecasts
Pax. trips Syd-Can (m)
2.00
2.06
2.12
2.19
2.25
2.32
2.39
2.46
2.53
2.61
2.69
2.77
2.85
2.94
3.03
3.12
3.21
3.31
3.40
3.51
3.61
3.72
3.83
3.95
4.07
1.03
Pax trips intermediate (m)
0.50
0.52
0.53
0.55
0.56
0.58
0.60
0.61
0.63
0.65
0.67
0.69
0.71
0.73
0.76
0.78
0.80
0.83
0.85
0.88
0.90
0.93
0.96
0.99
1.02
Total trips (m)
2.50
2.58
2.65
2.73
2.81
2.90
2.99
3.07
3.17
3.26
3.36
3.46
3.56
3.67
3.78
3.89
4.01
4.13
4.26
4.38
4.52
4.65
4.79
4.93
5.08
Revenues
Passenger revenues
1,115
0
0
0
0
0
136
145
153
163
173
183
194
206
219
232
246
261
277
294
312
331
351
372
395
419
444
471
500
531
563
55
CSO payments
182
0
0
0
0
0
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
43
44
45
47
48
49
51
52
54
56
57
59
15
Other revenues
36
0
0
0
0
0
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
12
Residual sale value
189
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,806
Total revenues
1,522
0
0
0
0
0
171
180
190
201
212
223
236
249
263
277
293
309
326
345
364
385
407
430
454
480
507
536
567
599
634
4,806
Net revenues
(1,519)
(600)
(618)
(637)
(656)
(957)
101
108
114
121
128
136
145
153
163
21
183
194
206
219
232
246
261
277
294
312
331
351
372
395
419
4,806
Net present value @11%
-1,519
Internal rate of return
5.3%
Note: The assumptions are described in Box 2.6. The spreadsheet allows 3% inflation per annum for all costs and revenues.
Results
* The estimated present value of net revenues is -$1.52 bn, so the hypothetical project would not be financially viable.
* The estimated IRR of 5.3% for net revenues is well below the required rate of return of 11%, so the hypothetical project is not financially viable.
Table 3.2 Economic Evaluation of Hypothetical High Speed Rail from Sydney to Canberra (Constant 2000 dollars, million)
Economic costs
PV@7%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Land
28
30
Construction
2,337
570
570
570
570
570
Public sector works
76
0
0
30
30
40
Rolling stock
188
0
0
0
0
200
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
10
10
10
10
10
Track and plant costs
83
0
0
0
0
0
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
Fixed operating costs
166
0
0
0
0
0
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Variable operating costs
328
0
0
0
0
0
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
42
43
44
45
47
48
50
51
53
54
56
57
59
61
12
Total costs
3,207
600
570
600
600
810
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
169
70
72
73
74
75
77
78
80
81
93
94
96
97
99
101
Passenger forecasts
Passenger trips (nos)
2.00
2.06
2.12
2.19
2.25
2.32
2.39
2.46
2.53
2.61
2.69
2.77
2.85
2.94
3.03
3.12
3.21
3.31
3.40
3.51
3.61
3.72
3.83
3.95
4.07
1.03
Pax trips intermediate (m)
0.50
0.52
0.53
0.55
0.56
0.58
0.60
0.61
0.63
0.65
0.67
0.69
0.71
0.73
0.76
0.78
0.80
0.83
0.85
0.88
0.90
0.93
0.96
0.99
1.02
60
Total trips (m)
2.50
2.58
2.65
2.73
2.81
2.90
2.99
3.07
3.17
3.26
3.36
3.46
3.56
3.67
3.78
3.89
4.01
4.13
4.26
4.38
4.52
4.65
4.79
4.93
5.08
Economic benefits
Public works savings
164
0
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
Sydney-Can.rail savings
208
0
0
0
0
0
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
Rail pax + other revenues
1,341
0
0
0
0
0
123
126
130
134
138
142
146
151
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
191
197
202
209
215
221
228
235
242
249
Consumer surpluses
274
0
0
0
0
0
25
26
27
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
43
44
45
47
48
49
51
10
Lower road congestion
274
0
0
0
0
0
25
26
27
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
43
44
45
47
48
49
51
Environmental benefits
164
0
0
0
0
0
15
15
16
16
17
17
18
18
19
20
20
21
21
22
23
23
24
25
26
26
27
28
29
30
30
Residual benefit
243
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,980
Total benefits
2,668
0
0
30
0
30
215
251
227
263
239
275
252
289
266
303
280
318
296
334
312
351
330
369
348
388
368
408
389
430
411
1,980
Net benefits
(539)
(600)
(570)
(570)
(600)
(780)
155
190
165
200
175
210
186
222
198
134
210
246
223
260
237
274
252
289
267
296
274
313
292
331
310
1,980
Net present value @7%
(539)
Internal rate of return
5.4%
Note: the assumptions are described in Box 3.4. This spreadsheet is in constant dollars.
Results
* The estimated NPV is -$539 million, which means that the estimated benefits are less than the estimated costs.
* The estimated IRR of 5.4% is below the test discount rate of 7% (in constant prices).
