Economic monitoring/forecasting of rural business

Powell, R.; Ph: (02) 6771 3833; Fax: (02) 6771 3528; care@northnet.com.au

Research organisation: Centre for Agricultural & Regional Economics P/L, 215 Mann Street, Armidale, NSW 2350.

Sponsors: LWRRDC, Land and Water Resources Research and Development Corporation

Objectives:

1. To undertake a pilot development of an economic monitoring and forecasting system for the New England - North-west region of New South Wales;

2. To establish a survey base for quarterly monitoring of non-farm business in the region;

3. To develop farm output and income forecasting methods and investigate the role of drought forecasts in those methods; and

4. To prepare a manual on the methods for extension to other regions.

Methodology:

Consultation with representatives of economic development/business organisations about the value of forecasts to potential users - few organisations/businesses had management systems enabling rapid management responses to forecast changes.

Investigated possible links between the SOI and the value of output in total and for major enterprises - the relationships are not simple and further work is needed.

Developed a list of potential items to be included in a regional economy monitoring system.

Prepared a plan for implementation built on the need for building business awareness of the value of operating in ways that permit rapid response to forecast changes in economic conditions.

Progress: Project completed with the ideas being developed for pilot testing

Period: starting date 1993-07; 1995-06

Status: complete

Keywords: forecasting, agriculture, drought, economic monitoring

Publications: Final Report to LWRRDC