Seasonal Climate Forecasting to Improve Industry Competitiveness

Mallet, Y. Dr; Ph: (07) 3214 2251; Fax: (07) 3214 2206; yvette.mallet@tag.csiroau

Muchow, R. Dr; Ph: (07) 3214 2253; Fax: (07) 3214 2206; russell.muchow@tag.csiro.au

Stone, R. Dr; Ph: (07) 4688 1293; Mobile: 0412 559 408; Fax: (07) 4688 1193; mailto:rogers@apsrusg.sth.dpi.qld.gov.au

Research organisations:

CSIRO Tropical Agriculture, 306 Carmody Road Brisbane, Qld.

APSRU, P.O. Box 102 Toowoomba Qld 4350.

Sponsor:

Sugar Research and Development Corporation

Land and Water Resources Research and Development Corporation

Objectives:

1. To improve industry competitiveness by providing improved risk management and decision making capability for the Australian Sugar Industry through effective integration of seasonal climate forecasting with strategies for :

• - sugar marketing
• - managing sugar quality
• - harvest scheduling
• - the use of irrigation supplies
• - farm and mill planning

2. To increase awareness of the value of seasonal climate forecasting for the sugar industry and to examine the feasibility of different mechanisms for delivery of information that will enhance the capability of marketers, millers and growers to use seasonal forecasting in management decisions

3. To evaluate the impact of improved risk management and decision-making capability using seasonal climate forecasting

Methodology:

1. Develop historical climate database and climate forecast models relevant to the Australian Sugar Industry; through industry consultation define key issues and collate information from linked projects on current practice relating to decision-making on irrigation management, yield forecasting, sugar quality and marketing.

2. Establish an appropriate climate forecast system for the Australian Sugar Industry.

3. Quantify climatic inputs (using perfect prediction) on decision-making related to management, harvest scheduling and yield forecasting, sugar quality and marketing.

4. Publish details of an integrated system that links seasonal climate forecasting with current irrigation modelling.

5. Analyse the value of seasonal climate forecasting on key decision-making areas related to yield forecasting, harvest scheduling and sugar quality and marketing.

6. Compile discussion paper on options for possible climate forecasting delivery systems for the different sugar industry clients.

7. Plan Industry workshop on delivery systems. Assess future research priorities and develop preliminary proposal for new project funding.

Period: Starting date 1999-01; completion date 2003-01.

Status: Initiated.

Keywords: seasonal climate forecast, sugar, modelling, historical climate database.

Publications: none as yet.