Meyers, G. Dr; (Ph: (03) 6232 5208; Fax (03) 6232 5123; email@example.com
Smith, N. Dr; (Ph: (03) 9669 4660. Fax (03) 9669 4660, N.Smith@bom.gov.au
Research Organisations: CSIRO Marine Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart Tas 7001; Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Vic 3001.
Sponsor: LWRRDC, Land and Water Resources Research and Development Corporation.
Provide an improved understanding and capacity to predict and monitor climate variability within the operational environment of the Bureau of Meteorology:
- Develop and test numerical coupled ocean and atmosphere model with ocean data assimilation and generalised flux coupling;
- Evaluation of retrospective predictions;
- Model running operationally.
Understand key physical processes, particularly with respect to predictability:
- Assess key strengths and weaknesses of predictions, and identify contributing factors (model, data, physics etc.);
- Assessment of the response of ocean model to observed fluxes of heat, fresh water and momentum;
- Identify causes of known model errors in SST of east equatorial Pacific and improve model accordingly.
Improve data utilisation and initialisation of a prediction run:
- Documentation of the sensitivity of the coupled model to different data inputs;
- Length scales and coastal corrections for data assimilation defined;
- Expertise in the strengths and weaknesses of available prediction systems, including data dependencies, developed.
A comprehensive global climate prediction system will be produced by combining the following elements:
a. Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric Model (BAM), currently used operationally in stand-alone mode by the Bureau;
b. Australian Community Ocean Model - version 2 (ACOM2), developed as part of an earlier NCVP project;
c. Data assimilation sub-system for ACOM2, also developed as part of an earlier NCVP project;
d. real-time ocean-atmosphere/satellite data stream at the Bureau, required by the data assimilation sub-system to initialise predictions;
e. a general coupling system to improve communication between the ocean and atmosphere components;
f. archived ocean/atmosphere data for conducting retrospective predictions and assessing prediction accuracy;
g. existing model diagnosis software for identifying physical processes affecting predictability.
A coupled model system, including data and product flow, will be developed suitable for the operational environment. The project will emphasise testing and validation of the ocean model with data.
Progress: Detailed working plan agreed by collaborators.
Period: starting date 1999-01; completion date 2001-12
Publications: None as yet.