Voice, M.E., Ms Ph: (03) 9669 4086, Fax: (03) 9669 4678; M.Voice@bom.gov.au
Power, S.B., Dr Ph: (03) 9669 4085, Fax: (03) 9669 4678; S.Power@bom.gov.au
Walland, D.J., Dr Ph: (03) 9669 4068; Fax: (03) 9669 4678; D.Walland@bom.gov.au
Research organisation: National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, PO Box 1289K, Melbourne, Vic. 3001
Sponsors: LWRRDC NCVP, Land and Water Resources Research and Development Corporation.
Objectives: To facilitate the effective implementation, adoption and utilisation of experimental model outputs through:
1. assessing model outputs from seasonal forecasts made by overseas and local coupled general circulation models;
2. ensuring transfer into operations by involving participating agencies into the appropriate path taken into operations and also discussion on appropriate verification techniques; and
3. using a regular long-lead (2-12 months) forecast forum at which experimental forecasts and impacts will be assessed.
Methodology: Model output from various forecasting groups will be compiled to allow intercomparison of results on monthly and seasonal timescales. Hindcasts will be assessed to determine the skill of the forecasts. The primary variables to be assessed are rainfall, SOI, NINO3 and surface temperature. The forecasts of these variables will be presented at biannual workshops and appear in published format and on the web.
Progress: project about to commence
Period: starting date 1999-01; completion date 2001-06
Keywords: coupled general circulation models, seasonal outlooks, rainfall.
Publications: none as yet